中国数学会关于防疫工作的相关情况报告(五)

Release time:2020-02-21

自新型冠状病毒疫情爆发以来,我国政府高度重视疫情防控防治,迅速采取了一系列有力措施阻止疫情蔓延,成果正在逐渐显现,全国的新增病例数已呈现下降趋势。近期,伴随着北京、上海等地的陆续复工,人员聚集,人流密集,是否会带来疫情的二次爆发?这一问题备受关注。

由西安交通大学生物数学团队和陕西师范大学生物数学团队共同组成的研究团队针对这一问题就湖北地区进行了研究。该团队通过收集全国以及湖北各地市的疫情数据、人口流动数据、春运期间武汉人口迁入和迁出趋势和流入到湖北其他地市的人口分布情况,构建以武汉为中心的复杂网络模型,通过统计计算与参数估计确定网络模型未知参数,分析武汉及周边15个疫情严重地区复工的最佳时间,评估早复工对这些地区疫情发展特别是二次暴发风险的影响。该团队的主要研究结论显示:湖北地区的复工不能早于32日,否则疫情可能二次暴发;若32日复工并有较强的防控措施,湖北各个城市的疫情在较长时间内将不会二次暴发。该团队的相关论文已发表于《中国科学:数学》,相关研究成果为疾病预防控制、决策部门提供了重要的决策依据,服务于国家重大突发性传染性疾病的防控。


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团队介绍

该研究团队主要由西安交通大学生物数学团队和陕西师范大学生物数学团队组成,在中国科学院徐宗本院士的顶层设计和亲自带领下,致力于数据和问题驱动的传染病动力学、有害生物控制、肿瘤的综合治疗建模与分析。特别的,在突发性传染病发展趋势的预测、国家重点关注的重大传染病等方面做出了深刻的成果。中国数学会理事唐三一教授为该团队主要成员之一。

 

 

中国数学会

2020年221

Prizes

Hua Loo-Keng Prize of Mathematics

Professor Hua Loo-Keng is a famous mathematician

Professor Hua Loo-Keng is a famous Chinese mathematician and loves his motherland deeply. He devoted into the scientific career, and made an outstanding contribution to the Chinese mathematical career and talents cultivation for all his life.

Shiing Shen Chern Mathematics Award

Prof Chern is a worldwide math master

As a Chinese American mathematician, a foreign academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Professor Shiing Shen Chern is a worldwide math master. He made outstanding contributions to the development of mathematics.

Zhong Jiaqing Mathematics Award

Professor Jiaqing ZHONG

Professor Jiaqing ZHONG was very concerned about the development of the mathematics of the motherland during his lifetime and worked hard for it. He has said that the development of mathematics depends on the active cultivation and selection of outstanding young mathematicians. He sincerely wish to establish a fund in China to reward outstanding young mathematicians.

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